AWUS01 KWNH 011552
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1052 AM EST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...much of Kentucky adn a small part of West
Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011600Z - 012200Z

Summary...Scattered convection is expected to repeat over areas
that received 2-6 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. Flash
flooding issues (including significant impacts) will continue.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic indicates three convective
regimes across the discussion area: 1) A lead, yet weakening MCS
currently over southern West Virginia, 2) scattered, yet gradually
deepening convection from north-central Middle Tennessee into
southern/eastern Kentucky, and 3) an elongated MCS that was
forward-propagating along well-organized convective outflow from
south of SDF to near HOP. Each of these convective regimes have
proven to be efficient rainfall producers. The lead MCS over West
Virginia initially produced 2-6 inches of rain in an axis across southern/eastern Kentucky this morning along with extensive
impacts. Ongoing convection continuing to traverse those areas of
earlier rainfall continue to produce occasional 0.2-1.0 inch/hr
rain rates. The linear MCS across western Kentucky was also
producing rates nearing 1 inch/hour.

Observational trends suggest that the ongoing convective regime
should continue through the next 6 hours. The linear complex in
western Kentucky will make gradual eastward progress into central
Kentucky through 21Z. That eastward progression will be slow
enough to maintain flash flood concerns - especially where earlier
heavy rain fell. Meanwhile, towering cumulus over north-central
Middle Tennessee will eventually mature into moderate to heavy
rain producers while traversing areas that received abundant rain
earlier. Continued flooding concerns are expected as a result of
this activity along with moist soils and continued runoff based on
recent Flash data. The flash flood risk will be highest in areas
that have experienced earlier rainfall along a broad axis from HOP
to BWG to JKL. Given the antecedent rainfall, wet soils, efficient
runoff, and previously observed, significant impacts are expected.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38358448 38268283 37988168 37678045 37488031
37288085 37228165 37128266 36888388 36728538
36418789 36438848 36668862 36958875 37318801
37808662 38248547

$$