• HVYSNOW: Probabilistic He

    From Weather Alert to All on Tue Jan 4 16:29:00 2022
    FOUS11 KWBC 042115
    QPFHSD

    Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    414 PM EST Tue Jan 04 2022

    Valid 00Z Wed Jan 05 2022 - 00Z Sat Jan 08 2022

    [...snip...]

    ...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
    Day 2-3...
    Shortwave energy crossing the central U.S. in the quasi-zonal flow
    begins to sharpen and dig as it approaches the Tennessee and lower
    Ohio valleys Thursday. An area of low pressure over the Deep South
    is then expected to strengthen as it lifts northeast through the
    southern Appalachians then off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday
    morning. Then on Friday, as the associated shortwave begins to
    assume a negative tilt and lift northeast, the surface low is
    expected to rapidly intensify and track along the Northeast coast.
    Modest moisture being tapped from the Gulf will help drive
    widespread precipitation across the lower Ohio Valley through much
    of the central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and
    Northeast. As noted in previous discussions, there remains
    considerable uncertainty in the eventual low pressure track and
    therefore the amount/depth of cold air in place and its potential
    impacts. However, there remains a significant signal for several
    inches of snow for portions of eastern Kentucky into West Virginia
    through by early Friday. The latest WPC probabilities for 4 inches
    remain high across eastern Kentucky through much of West Virginia
    with a broad area of moderate probabilities around it from central
    Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic. As the system intensifies, the
    potential for significant snows is expected to increase from the
    northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, including the I-95 corridor.
    Latest WPC probabilities show moderate probabilities for snowfall accumulations of 4 inches or more from the Baltimore metro through
    eastern Maine.

    Fracasso/Pereira/Taylor

    ~~~ Key Messages for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the
    Northeast Winter Storm ~~~

    -There is potential for another storm to impact portions of the
    Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys, central Appalachians,
    Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Thursday through Friday.

    -Potential exists for several inches of snow and widespread
    hazardous travel conditions.

    -Mixed precipitation, including freezing rain, is possible south
    of the heavier snow in the Tennessee Valley.

    -There remains a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm and
    potential snow/ice amounts, but an impactful event is becoming
    increasingly likely.


    $$