FOUS11 KWBC 042115
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EST Tue Jan 04 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 05 2022 - 00Z Sat Jan 08 2022

[...snip...]

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Day 2-3...
Shortwave energy crossing the central U.S. in the quasi-zonal flow
begins to sharpen and dig as it approaches the Tennessee and lower
Ohio valleys Thursday. An area of low pressure over the Deep South
is then expected to strengthen as it lifts northeast through the
southern Appalachians then off the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday
morning. Then on Friday, as the associated shortwave begins to
assume a negative tilt and lift northeast, the surface low is
expected to rapidly intensify and track along the Northeast coast.
Modest moisture being tapped from the Gulf will help drive
widespread precipitation across the lower Ohio Valley through much
of the central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. As noted in previous discussions, there remains
considerable uncertainty in the eventual low pressure track and
therefore the amount/depth of cold air in place and its potential
impacts. However, there remains a significant signal for several
inches of snow for portions of eastern Kentucky into West Virginia
through by early Friday. The latest WPC probabilities for 4 inches
remain high across eastern Kentucky through much of West Virginia
with a broad area of moderate probabilities around it from central
Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic. As the system intensifies, the
potential for significant snows is expected to increase from the
northern Mid-Atlantic to New England, including the I-95 corridor.
Latest WPC probabilities show moderate probabilities for snowfall accumulations of 4 inches or more from the Baltimore metro through
eastern Maine.

Fracasso/Pereira/Taylor

~~~ Key Messages for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the
Northeast Winter Storm ~~~

-There is potential for another storm to impact portions of the
Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys, central Appalachians,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Thursday through Friday.

-Potential exists for several inches of snow and widespread
hazardous travel conditions.

-Mixed precipitation, including freezing rain, is possible south
of the heavier snow in the Tennessee Valley.

-There remains a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm and
potential snow/ice amounts, but an impactful event is becoming
increasingly likely.


$$