ACUS11 KWNS 081250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081250
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-081515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081250Z - 081515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue this
morning. The stronger storms will have potential for hail, strong
gusts and a brief tornado. Weather watch issuance may become
necessary later this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery in the Tennessee Valley
shows numerous thunderstorms along an east-to-west outflow boundary,
from southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee. To the south of this convection, the RAP has moderate instability in place, with MLCAPE
generally in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings in
northern Tennessee this morning suggest the activity is
surface-based. WSR-88D VWPs along and near the outflow boundary have
0-6 km shear in the 45 to 50 knot range, which will continue to be
sufficient for supercells and bowing line segments. Wind damage and
hail the primary threats. However, VWPs also have 0-1 km shear in
the 20 to 25 knot range near this feature, suggesting that a brief
tornado will be possible with embedded supercells.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/08/2024

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35698430 35638514 35668620 35788711 35988802 36248855
36468876 36718889 36898867 36818785 36588672 36708500
36848408 36608352 36038359 35698430


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